Ritch Wigham Investment Advisor

The Russians are on to Potash!

The Russians are staring to understand Potash. Potash pricing improving internationally helped by Russian exporters!

See this article to learn more…

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Ritch Wigham
Mackie Research Capital
http://ritchwigham.com/
PH.(604)-662-1853
T.F. 866-662-1853

Questions about Agriculture & Potash

An interesting link to a Globe and mail blog with Ravi Sood taking questions about agriculture and “Potash” companies

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Free Potash Report

I’ve just released a free report on the Potash industry.

Sign up for the report here.

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Standoff over fertilizer prices imperils world food supply

After reading this article from the Globe and Mail: I have just finished a special report that you can request with my current recommendations on the Potash companies that we follow.

-Ritch

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Being wrong and being right.

By, Ritch Wigham

We have all had situations were we have been right longer term and wrong on the near term. Very frustrating, but also very human. For those of us in the investment business this can pose a bit of a problem. “Sticking to your guns”, as they say, could result in some serious stress while you are trying to decide if you are still right or are simply WRONG.

One of my favourite sayings regarding this principle is often repeated by my friend Dennis Gartman: “The market or markets can stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent”. This is particularly true if you are covering margin call after margin call in the futures markets.

This blog is not about how to fix this aspect of trading, this is about recognizing that if your first assumption is correct (or proven to be) you must still recognize this and act accordingly.

I found myself in this position all summer as we watched the best crop in a generation crumble agricultural stocks, fertilizer stocks and grain futures in spite of an unusually cool and late growing season. There were no sun-spots, but it didn’t matter until now!!

I had suggested that:” if you weren’t going to be long this group, you had better not be short.” I said this early on in the year just as farmers in North America were seeding their fields and preparing for the summer growing season. Was I wrong? Near term it appears I was. Now that we have had a very early freeze, and snow through a vast stretch of the crop area in central North America, maybe not so wrong after all.

If one had gone long stocks you are fine. Most of the favourites didn’t really move higher but are now certainly poised to do so. Potash Corp., Potash One, Agrium etal, are now finally in a position where all the great crop news is behind them. The world still needs fertilizer, and that season is now upon us. (Improving exports,etc)

If you had been long the grains, one can only hope that you were able to go to the sidelines early in the summer as this “great” crop emerged. If that was the case now “IS” the time to get long again. There will not be any more great crop news to come. It can however get rather lousy. Frost and wet ruin crops. If the Great Plains don’t dry out quickly from here, yields will tumble for corn and beans, and grade for what wheat is still standing. Large amounts of the corn crop in particular may be affected by the recent weather. Follow this link for a good article on this by Stu Ellis.
If he is correct and we see as much of a yield decline as he suggests, we will see some very smart price increase. Either way, we have put the big bottoms in.

So we go back to the top. Sun spots (lack of them) did muck up the weather. I guess I was “Right” longer term. The ability of this cooler than normal weather to give one of the best crops in a generation, did however have me very “Wrong” for the bulk of the summer, or for the “near term”.

The really important thing is to recognize when you are wrong. In the futures markets that is important very quickly. In the stock markets, that is important, but you have more time to decide whether you can hold through the pain of waiting. In this case I am very bullish all that is agricultural still. On the near term, and the long haul as well.

Talk to you soon,

Ritch

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Agriculture Maintains Prominence

This article once again re-enforces my belief that agriculture and associated companies” is and are” the best way forward as the world economies improve. If the economies stall, agriculture will still maintain it’s prominence. The soft prices that resulted this year with what has been a near perfect growing season in the U.S. are not going to last for long and do offer what I feel will be the best opportunity to acquire much of what we consume as CHEAP as it will be for a very long time into the future.

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Well, this pretty much covers it. Cheap still, not for long.

A new article on Potash that I highly recommend you take a look was recently published here on Report on Business.

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

GO figure, Canpotex caves to Russian price

…But if it is the bottom? Well higher we go!

Please take a look at the following article on the Globe and Mail today discussing Potash Corp.

Ritch

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

GO figure, Canpotex caves to Russian price!

But if it is the bottom? Well higher we go!

Please take a look at the following article on the Globe and Mail today discussing Potash Corp.

Ritch

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

What is the Price of Potash?

There was a rumored shipment of potash negotiated last Thursday (July,09/09). Supposedly a shipment of some 850,000 tons from a minor producer in Russia was sold for $460/ton and delivered to a port in India.The reason I am bringing this forward is that it stinks. I don’t mean it physically smells, I mean it carries the stench of some form of collusion or even corruption. The company involved Silvinet is the smaller of the few companies in Russia that produce potash. This also makes it a relatively minor player in the world of potash. It supposedly bid for this contract $160.00 under the current prevailing price being negotiated for Chinese and Indian delivery and it is also more than $200.00 under the current spot price for the commodity. This would be like Husky selling gasoline at the pump in Western Canada at $.75/lire while Chevron, Esso, and the rest are still charging $107./litre as is the case this morning in Vancouver. It is possible but I don’t remember it ever happening.

My inclination is to believe that if this is true that the broader story is much more complex. I don’t usually trust this type of story from what is widely regarded as one of the top most corrupt countries in the world. I have seen this type of disparity in the past. It used to regularly occur in the grain and precious metals markets when the Russians didn’t need to disclose their activities. One of the most recent was the huge squeeze in the Palladium market a few years back when they held back supply and drove the price to over $1000.00/ounce. I saw it many years ago when the wheat crop went from a disaster in the Ukraine (pre Glasnost) that became a bumper crop after the price of wheat soared.

If this story holds up, look for the major producers to hold back on any contract with the Chinese and Indian governments and simply supply the spot market until supplies become so tight that a new contract is negotiated at a fair ($625+) price for all concerned.

Ritch Wigham 

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

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