Vancouver Investment Advisor Ritch Wigham » Agriculture

The Chinese are Coming… Again!

admin — Thu, 13 May 2010 20:51:42 +0000

The first corn exports of any significance have just been booked for the Chinese market. There are a number of factors within this development that we must pay attention to:

It has been years (like 10 or so) since any amount other than a token was exported from North America to China.
The drought that was last year and excess moisture this year has obviously created concerns within the agricultural ministry about supplies for the balance of this year.
the need for better more resilient seed in the Chinese market has become more immediate than previous years(Monsanto drought/moisture resistant GMO seeds)
the need to import more “FERTILIZER” (read Potash Corp etal) will become imperative.
The importation of food crops into an expanding economy suggests that this is a tool that will be used to help control inflation and may signal the importation of other food crops as well(read wheat)

In the coming months this development will become more and more of a factor in the markets. I want to remind everyone what happened a very few(two years ago) with the rice price and fear that hyper priced rice brought with it when drought affected the distribution of the crop world wide. A very small reduction in production creates a very real and immediate impact on pricing. Remember that our old rule of thumb was that” a 3% drop in world wheat production was worth about $1.00/bushel to the farmer”. I am not sure what the numbers are for corn or rice but I am sure that they would equate to a similar movement on a percentage basis.

I believe that this export news is a pre-cursor to another round of food grain tightness that will be very beneficial for our investments in the near term and suggests that the liberal pricing of grains and potash and other crop inputs is has reached a bottom for this recent time period.

To learn more, see this article from the Globe and Mail. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/boatloads-of-corn-mark-turning-point-for-china/article1566844/)

Talk to you all soon

Ritch

Mackie Research Capital Corporation (MRCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-MRCC website please understand that it is independent from MRCC and that MRCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by MRCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital Corporation (”MRCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

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The Russians are on to Potash!

admin — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:09:27 +0000

The Russians are staring to understand Potash. Potash pricing improving internationally helped by Russian exporters!

See this article to learn more…

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Ritch Wigham
Mackie Research Capital

http://ritchwigham.com/

PH.(604)-662-1853
T.F. 866-662-1853

Questions about Agriculture & Potash

admin — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:07:40 +0000

An interesting link to a Globe and mail blog with Ravi Sood taking questions about agriculture and “Potash” companies

View the full story here.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Free Potash Report

admin — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:33:06 +0000

I’ve just released a free report on the Potash industry.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Standoff over fertilizer prices imperils world food supply

admin — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:41:03 +0000

After reading this article from the Globe and Mail: I have just finished a special report that you can request with my current recommendations on the Potash companies that we follow.

-Ritch

Mackie Research Capital Corporation (MRC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-MRC website please understand that it is independent from MRC and that MRC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by MRC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Being wrong and being right.

admin — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:24:11 +0000

By, Ritch Wigham

We have all had situations were we have been right longer term and wrong on the near term. Very frustrating, but also very human. For those of us in the investment business this can pose a bit of a problem. “Sticking to your guns”, as they say, could result in some serious stress while you are trying to decide if you are still right or are simply WRONG.

One of my favourite sayings regarding this principle is often repeated by my friend Dennis Gartman: “The market or markets can stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent”. This is particularly true if you are covering margin call after margin call in the futures markets.

This blog is not about how to fix this aspect of trading, this is about recognizing that if your first assumption is correct (or proven to be) you must still recognize this and act accordingly.

I found myself in this position all summer as we watched the best crop in a generation crumble agricultural stocks, fertilizer stocks and grain futures in spite of an unusually cool and late growing season. There were no sun-spots, but it didn’t matter until now!!

I had suggested that:” if you weren’t going to be long this group, you had better not be short.” I said this early on in the year just as farmers in North America were seeding their fields and preparing for the summer growing season. Was I wrong? Near term it appears I was. Now that we have had a very early freeze, and snow through a vast stretch of the crop area in central North America, maybe not so wrong after all.

If one had gone long stocks you are fine. Most of the favourites didn’t really move higher but are now certainly poised to do so. Potash Corp., Potash One, Agrium etal, are now finally in a position where all the great crop news is behind them. The world still needs fertilizer, and that season is now upon us. (Improving exports,etc)

If you had been long the grains, one can only hope that you were able to go to the sidelines early in the summer as this “great” crop emerged. If that was the case now “IS” the time to get long again. There will not be any more great crop news to come. It can however get rather lousy. Frost and wet ruin crops. If the Great Plains don’t dry out quickly from here, yields will tumble for corn and beans, and grade for what wheat is still standing. Large amounts of the corn crop in particular may be affected by the recent weather. Follow this link for a good article on this by Stu Ellis.
If he is correct and we see as much of a yield decline as he suggests, we will see some very smart price increase. Either way, we have put the big bottoms in.

So we go back to the top. Sun spots (lack of them) did muck up the weather. I guess I was “Right” longer term. The ability of this cooler than normal weather to give one of the best crops in a generation, did however have me very “Wrong” for the bulk of the summer, or for the “near term”.

The really important thing is to recognize when you are wrong. In the futures markets that is important very quickly. In the stock markets, that is important, but you have more time to decide whether you can hold through the pain of waiting. In this case I am very bullish all that is agricultural still. On the near term, and the long haul as well.

Talk to you soon,

Ritch

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Agriculture Maintains Prominence

admin — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 19:31:10 +0000

This article once again re-enforces my belief that agriculture and associated companies” is and are” the best way forward as the world economies improve. If the economies stall, agriculture will still maintain it’s prominence. The soft prices that resulted this year with what has been a near perfect growing season in the U.S. are not going to last for long and do offer what I feel will be the best opportunity to acquire much of what we consume as CHEAP as it will be for a very long time into the future.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Well, this pretty much covers it. Cheap still, not for long.

admin — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:28:51 +0000

A new article on Potash that I highly recommend you take a look was recently published here on Report on Business.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

GO figure, Canpotex caves to Russian price

admin — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:31:18 +0000

…But if it is the bottom? Well higher we go!

Please take a look at the following article on the Globe and Mail today discussing Potash Corp.

Ritch

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

GO figure, Canpotex caves to Russian price!

admin — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:09:49 +0000

But if it is the bottom? Well higher we go!

Please take a look at the following article on the Globe and Mail today discussing Potash Corp.

Ritch

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.