Vancouver Investment Advisor Ritch Wigham » potash

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan is finally in play!!!

admin — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 15:41:18 +0000

Well it is about time, and boy has it been busy for the last couple of days. The worst kept secret in the mining world has finally been aired in public. It has been known for some time that BHP was scrambling to be in the potash business. What wasn’t confirmed until yesterday was exactly how they were going to facilitate that entry. Would the acquisition of Athabasca adjacent to their other land holdings in the Jansen project satisfy them or would they want immediate gratification by acquiring one of the big producers?

That was certainly answered when they decided that POT(Potash Corp.of Sask) was of immediate interest with a low ball bid of U.S.$130.00/share.

All knew that that would not be enough money. That bid has now gone” hostile” and POT has entered into a “poison pill” shareholder agreement to try and buy time for future machinations. This story will not end quickly or maybe quietly.

If you are a conspirasist you will believe that the two CEO’s (that have known each other for many years), have already struck a deal over cocktails, that is only being played out in public to satisfy the regulators, but has already had a pre-determined and ordained outcome behind the scenes. I find this quite reasonable actually, since you all know I have said that a series of takeovers in this space (Potash producers/juniors) was inevitable. The only question is to guess what happens from here.

I have my own “hunches”. I will talk more about them in coming narratives but suffice it to say “this game has only just begun”. There will be a few twists I believe I have the answer to that will change the way potash is marketed from now on. If you are not huge you will not last, and never forget the Russians.

Talk to you soon,

Ritch

Mackie Research Capital Corporation (MRCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-MRCC website please understand that it is independent from MRCC and that MRCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by MRCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital Corporation (”MRCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund / member-fonds canadien de protection des épargnants.

The Russians are on to Potash!

admin — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:09:27 +0000

The Russians are staring to understand Potash. Potash pricing improving internationally helped by Russian exporters!

See this article to learn more…

Research Capital Corporation (RCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-RCC website please understand that it is independent from RCC and that RCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by RCC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Ritch Wigham
Mackie Research Capital

http://ritchwigham.com/

PH.(604)-662-1853
T.F. 866-662-1853

Questions about Agriculture & Potash

admin — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:07:40 +0000

An interesting link to a Globe and mail blog with Ravi Sood taking questions about agriculture and “Potash” companies

View the full story here.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Research Capital Corporation (”RCC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor RCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to RCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Standoff over fertilizer prices imperils world food supply

admin — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:41:03 +0000

After reading this article from the Globe and Mail: I have just finished a special report that you can request with my current recommendations on the Potash companies that we follow.

-Ritch

Mackie Research Capital Corporation (MRC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-MRC website please understand that it is independent from MRC and that MRC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by MRC.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Well, this pretty much covers it. Cheap still, not for long.

admin — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:28:51 +0000

A new article on Potash that I highly recommend you take a look was recently published here on Report on Business.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

GO figure, Canpotex caves to Russian price

admin — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:31:18 +0000

…But if it is the bottom? Well higher we go!

Please take a look at the following article on the Globe and Mail today discussing Potash Corp.

Ritch

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

What is the Price of Potash?

admin — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:04:20 +0000

There was a rumored shipment of potash negotiated last Thursday (July,09/09). Supposedly a shipment of some 850,000 tons from a minor producer in Russia was sold for $460/ton and delivered to a port in India.The reason I am bringing this forward is that it stinks. I don’t mean it physically smells, I mean it carries the stench of some form of collusion or even corruption. The company involved Silvinet is the smaller of the few companies in Russia that produce potash. This also makes it a relatively minor player in the world of potash. It supposedly bid for this contract $160.00 under the current prevailing price being negotiated for Chinese and Indian delivery and it is also more than $200.00 under the current spot price for the commodity. This would be like Husky selling gasoline at the pump in Western Canada at $.75/lire while Chevron, Esso, and the rest are still charging $107./litre as is the case this morning in Vancouver. It is possible but I don’t remember it ever happening.

My inclination is to believe that if this is true that the broader story is much more complex. I don’t usually trust this type of story from what is widely regarded as one of the top most corrupt countries in the world. I have seen this type of disparity in the past. It used to regularly occur in the grain and precious metals markets when the Russians didn’t need to disclose their activities. One of the most recent was the huge squeeze in the Palladium market a few years back when they held back supply and drove the price to over $1000.00/ounce. I saw it many years ago when the wheat crop went from a disaster in the Ukraine (pre Glasnost) that became a bumper crop after the price of wheat soared.

If this story holds up, look for the major producers to hold back on any contract with the Chinese and Indian governments and simply supply the spot market until supplies become so tight that a new contract is negotiated at a fair ($625+) price for all concerned.

Ritch Wigham

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.

Potash Junior Gets Boost

admin — Thu, 14 May 2009 15:55:14 +0000

We have been involved with this junior for some time.

Contact me and find out why this is such a special opportunity and should be considered for your portfolio.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital (”MRC”). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member CIPF.